Changes in food purchasing behaviour and the impact on diet and nutrition: 2021 to 2023
1 Introduction
This report provides information on trends in the purchasing of food and drink. It examines changes in purchasing behaviour and presents the impact on overall sales, and changes in type of food purchased and its nutrient content.
It analyses purchasing of food, drink and alcohol to be taken into the home and food and drink to be consumed out of the home. It compares the 12-week period to the beginning of September 2023 with the corresponding periods in 2022 and 2021. This coincided with price increases and a continuing recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic which impacted consumer behaviour.
It is important to note that it is difficult to isolate the impact of any one potential causal factor on changes in purchasing. The COVID-19 pandemic had a large impact on people’s purchasing habits, with people eating out of the home much less. The data in this report covers the COVID-19 recovery period where people were starting to eat out of the home a lot more. Comparable data prior to the COVID-19 pandemic are not available.
This report is the second part of a series of reports. The first, Consumer food purchasing and consumption: Latest trends in Food Price inflation, Part 1 - FA0504 was published by the Department for Environment, Food & Rural Affairs (DEFRA) and is concerned mainly with trends in buyer behaviour and not its nutritional impact. The living costs and food survey published by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) also looks at spending on food and drink but as part of the entirety of a household’s total spending and also does not directly consider the nutritional impact. The main focus of this new report is to look at the impact on nutrition and specifically how the purchasing of different nutrients has changed.
2 Main messages
Take home Purchasing
People’s behaviour changed in relation to buying food and drink to take into the home in 2023 compared with both 2021 and 2022. Partly in response to food and drink price inflation (25.9% increase compared with 2021, 13.1% increase compared with 2022) shoppers decreased their “category repertoire” (bought less variety of things), decreased their “repeat volume” (bought less of what they used to buy) and changed their “product mix” (changed from more expensive tiers of products to cheaper tiers). At the same time, total volume sales decreased by 7.3% on 2021. Volume sales of Drinks (including alcoholic drinks) and Proteins (including beans, pulses, fish, eggs, meat) had the biggest declines (down 9.9% and 10.2% respectively since 2021). Although volume sales of Starchy Carbohydrates (such as bread, pasta, rice) declined, there was a small increase in the proportion of sales made up by this category (0.6 percentage points since 2021). Some groups were impacted by food and drink price inflation more than others. Those who considered themselves struggling, in less affluent households (C2DE) and those households with young families saw the largest impact on their expenditure. This may be because relatively more of their expenditure is on categories which have seen higher price increases compared to more affluent households.
Out of Home Purchasing
The prevalence of eating out of the home also increased in 2023 (volume up 10.6% on 2022). Price inflation was evident in the out of home market, although “category repertoire” and “repeat volume” increased indicating people were eating out of the home more. This may be due to recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic. There were increases in the market share for snacks (up 1.3 percentage points on both 2021 and 2022) but decreases for main meals (down 1.7 percentage points on 2021, 0.6 percentage points on 2022). This may have been driven by a return of workers to the office following the pandemic, as the biggest absolute change in volume was seen in those working over 30 hours a week.
Impact on Nutrition
When looking at take home and out of home purchasing combined there was an increase in the amount of calories purchased (up 1.4% on 2022), saturated fat (up 3.1% on 2022) and salt (up 1.4% on 2022), while there was a decrease in the amount of sugar purchased (down 0.7%). The increases were driven by the out of home sector as they reduced in the take home sector. Comparisons with 2021 are not available for the out of home sector.
For the eating out of home nutrition analysis, it is possible to look at the “coping strategies” to determine the reasoning behind any increase or decrease in the specific nutrient. For all the nutrients looked at, the main driver for the increases was “repeat volume”, signifying that people were eating out of home more. When looking at take home and out of home combined, the increase in calories purchased (up 1.4% on 2022) was bigger than the increase in volume purchased (0.6%) indicating that people’s diets were more calorific. For the take home market, Discretionary Foods made up the biggest share of calories (24.8%), though Starchy Carbohydrates increased their share the most (up 0.4 percentage points on 2022).
For sugar, when looking at take home and out of home combined there was an overall reduction in sugar purchased (down 0.7% on 2022), although out of home increased by 16.4% and take home reduced by 2.7%. For take home, Discretionary Foods had the biggest share (43.3% in 2023), though the biggest reduction in share was seen in Drinks (down 1 percentage point on 2022). For saturated fat, across both sectors combined, the increase (up 3.1% on 2022) was greater than the increase in volume purchased (0.6%) indicating people’s diets contained proportionally more saturated fat. For the take home market, Dairy and Alternatives had the biggest share of saturated fat (34.9%), and this category increased its market share (up 1.1 percentage points on 2022). There was also an increase in salt for take home and out of home combined (1.4%) that was greater than the increase in volume (0.6%), indicating that people’s diets contained proportionally more salt. For the take home market, the Discretionary Foods category had the biggest share of salt (29.2%), though it’s share decreased (down 0.7 percentage points on 2022) while the share of the Miscellaneous category (including pizzas and ready meals) increased (up 0.5 percentage points on 2022).
High fat, sugar or salt (HFSS)
For food taken into the home, the proportion of sales in legislative categories considered HFSS fell between both 2021 and 2022 (down from 48.5% to 47.6%), and between 2022 and 2023 (down from 47.6% to 44.1%). This pattern was seen among most of the individual legislative categories. This is consistent with findings elsewhere in the report, with an overall reduction in sugar, and increases in fat and salt being driven by the eating out of home market.
3 Data
This report uses data from several different Kantar data sets. The analysis of take home data comes from the Grocery Purchase Take-Home Household Panel, while the eating out of home analysis comes from Kantar’s Out of Home Panel, which is a subset of the Grocery Purchase Take-Home Household Panel. Detailed methodology and more information on data sources is available in the methodology annex. Please note that the scope of this analysis is restricted to Great Britain (England, Scotland and Wales).
4 Results: Food, drink and alcohol taken into the home
There are several different factors which help explain how shoppers have changed their spending behaviours during this period. Table 1 details these different factors. The impact of these factors on take home food, drink and alcohol purchased is quantified in the figures within this report. Please note that the data used for this analysis is split into “Sectors” (for example “ambient bakery products”), “Categories” (for example “total bread” which is part of the sector “ambient bakery products”) and “Sub-categories” (for example “white bread” which is part of the category “total bread”). This provides an increasingly granular description of how different food and drink products are grouped together.
| Factor | Definition |
|---|---|
| Category repertoire | Changes in the amount of food, drink and alcohol (“volume”) purchased by sub-categories in the time period (from a list of 1,741 sub-categories within food, drink and alcohol) |
| Repeat volume | Changes in volume within sectors bought by each household in both time periods |
| Store mix | Changes in the amount of money spent (“spend”) by stores with different average prices (for example, switching from M&S to Aldi). |
| Brand/private label (PL) mix | Changes in spend by brands and supermarket own label (referred to as “private label” - given that private label is on average cheaper in a given category, such as switching from McVities digestives to Tesco own label digestives) |
| Promotion mix | The impact on spend from shoppers engaging more or less with promotions on food, drink and alcohol. A negative result means shoppers are saving money by using promotions more. Some shoppers may take advantage of buying more if an item is on promotion to save money, whereas others may wish to do this but can’t afford the additional cost of buying more on that shopping trip |
| Product mix | The impact on spend from other changes to product choice (such as moving spend from more expensive brands or supermarket own labels to cheaper ones, for example switching from Tesco “Finest” range to Tesco economy brands) |
| Inflation exposure | The amount of extra money shoppers spend on groceries due to price changes on identical items |
| Population size | The impact on spend from the changing number of overall households |
| Universe penetration | The impact on spend from shoppers entering or dropping out of the take home food, drink and alcohol market |
To help with the interpretation of the take home results, categories from the original data have been grouped into broader “food groups” in the context of a healthy balanced diet (see Table 2).
| Food group name | Types of sub-group |
|---|---|
| Bread, rice, pasta and other starchy carbohydrates | Bread, rice, pasta, noodles, cous-cous, breakfast cereals, potato products, morning goods |
| Fruit and vegetables | Fresh, frozen, tinned |
| Beans, pulses, fish, eggs, meat and other proteins | Fresh, frozen and canned meat and fish, canned and dried beans, peas and pulses, eggs and nuts |
| Dairy and alternatives | Milk, butter, cheese, yogurt, cream |
| Oils and spreads | Cooking oils, lard, suet, margarine |
| Discretionary foods | Cakes, snacks (sweet and savoury), biscuits, sweets, chocolate, ice cream, preserves and condiments |
| Drinks | Alcohol, soft drinks, tea, coffee, hot chocolate |
| Miscellaneous | Pizzas, ready meals, instant hot snacks, soups |
Figure 4.1 and Figure 4.2 quantify these factors. Figure 4.2 shows that in response to shoppers paying over 25% more for the same products than 2 years previously, they cut back on the amount of food, drink and alcohol purchased for take home and moved to cheaper items. This can be seen with the negative values for category repertoire (the variety of different sub-categories shoppers purchased from), repeat volumes (the amount of product a shopper purchased) and product mix (moving from premium or mainstream branded or supermarket own products to mainstream or value branded or supermarket own products). Shoppers also paid 13% more for the same products compared to 1 year previously but Figure 4.1 shows the amount they saved from changing the types and brands of products they bought was much smaller.
Figure 4.3, Figure 4.4 and Figure 4.5 shows the volume purchased in different food groups (defined as Kantar food and drink categories mapped to Eatwell categories) in the 12 weeks to September 2023, compared to the same period both 1 and 2 years previously. These charts show that the absolute volume for both the drinks group and the beans, pulses, fish, eggs and meat group have declined faster than the other food groups. This has resulted in them taking a smaller share of the total food and drink market, while other food groups such as bread, rice, pasta and other starchy carbohydrates, dairy and alternatives and fruit and vegetables have increased their share.
5 Results: Demographics
The data underpinning this analysis can be split into 3 broad areas of demographics:
- The social grade of a household (based on the job of the main wage earner in the household)
- The life stage of a household (based on the age and number of children within a household)
- How a household says they are coping with the increased cost of living
Figure 5.1 to Figure 5.6 show the impact of different factors for these demographic groups on the total spend on food, drink and alcohol taken into the home. Figure 5.1, Figure 5.2 and Figure 5.3 compares the 12 weeks to September 2023 with the same period a year previously. This shows that shoppers who said they were struggling due to the increase in food and drink prices, those from less affluent households and households with younger children were more affected by food and drink inflation than other households. This may be because relatively more of their purchases come from categories which have seen higher price increases compared to more affluent households. The main way in which shoppers from these groups compensated for these increased prices was to reduce the volume and variety of products purchased by more than other groups.
Figure 5.4, Figure 5.5 and Figure 5.6 presents the same comparison for 2 years previously. It shows that inflation exposure was a lot higher compared to 1 year previously, and that the same groups (those struggling, those from less affluent households and those households with younger children) were most impacted though the differences between most groups are small. The main way shoppers from those groups tried to compensate for this was by a change in the product mix, so switching to purchase standard or cheaper brands or supermarket own labels as opposed to more expensive brands and supermarket own labels (often referred to as “trading down”).
6 Results: Eating out of home
As with food taken into the home, there are a number of factors in the eating out of home sector that have affected the amount of money consumers have spent. These are broadly similar to those seen for take-home, though there are some differences. The factors for the eating out of home market are presented in Table 3.
| Factor | Description |
|---|---|
| Category repertoire | Measures changes in the amount of food and drink purchased (“volume”) driven by changes in the number of separate eating out of home categories of food and drink “sub-markets” (such as pizza or hot drinks) each individual purchased from in the time period (from a list of 223 sub-markets within the eating out of home sector) |
| Repeat volume | Measures changes in volume within the sub-markets bought by each individual in both analysed time periods |
| Channel mix | The impact on the amount of money spent (“spend”) from shoppers switching between different types of establishment “channel”, (such as coffee shops or quick service restaurants) with different average prices. Note: a movement needs to be for the same type of item, for example purchasing a burger from McDonald’s as opposed to a full-service restaurant |
| Store mix | The impact on spend from shoppers switching between businesses with different average prices within the same channel, for example from Pizza Express to Pizza Hut |
| Vouchers and promo mix | The impact on spend from shoppers engaging more or less with promotions or vouchers. In this instance, a negative result means shoppers are saving money by using promotions or vouchers more |
| Inflation and product mix | The net effect of price inflation on the same items, and the impact on spend from other tweaks to product choice (such as moving spend to a cheaper sandwich option). It is not possible to create an inflation figure for the total of the eating out of home sector due to the way the survey works (it doesn’t track specific products between years), although inflation for barcoded out of home items such as a can of coke purchased in a supermarket as part of a meal deal can be calculated |
| Population size | The impact on spend from the changing number of overall individuals |
| Universe penetration | The impact on spend from shoppers entering or dropping out of the eating out of home market altogether |
Figure 6.1 and Figure 6.2 show the impact of these different factors on consumer behaviour in relation to eating out of home in the 12 weeks to September 2023 compared to both 1 and 2 years previously. While both ‘category repertoire’ and ‘repeat volume’ have contributed to the increased spend on eating out of home (most likely due to recovery from COVID-19 pandemic), the effect of inflation and product mix is also very noticeable. While it is not possible to calculate a figure for the total out of home market (due to the way the survey works), for pre-packaged items with a barcode (e.g. bottles of soft drink or chocolate bars) the price inflation was 19.4% in the 12 weeks to September 2023 compared to the same period 2 years previously, and 11.5% compared to one year previously. To counteract this, shoppers made cheaper choices in terms of where they purchased their food.
Figure 6.3 to Figure 6.6 detail how different population groups are affecting the growth in eating out of home. Most of the absolute change is driven by those in full-time work, which may be due to workers returning to the office post COVID-19. However, there are some smaller groups whose purchasing within the out of home market has also increased by more than other groups, such as children/students and those not working.
Figure 6.7 to Figure 6.9 shows how the mix of products eaten out of home has changed. In the 12 weeks to September 2023, the volume of main meals increased compared to the same period both 1 and 2 years previously, but not as fast as other categories, so the volume share for main meals decreased. In comparison, volume sales for cheaper alternatives such as snacks and cold drinks increased more quickly which may be due to an increase in purchasing of “meal deals” in supermarket food to go sections as workers returned to offices.