Excess mortality in West Midlands - 21 March 2020 to to 05 March 2021

Introduction

Monitoring excess mortality provides understanding of the impact of COVID-19 during the course of the pandemic and beyond. Excess mortality in this report is defined as the number of deaths throughout the pandemic which are above the number expected based on mortality rates in earlier years.

In this report the expected number of deaths is modelled using five years of data from preceding years to estimate the number of deaths we would expect on each week through the pandemic. Excess deaths are estimated by week and in total since 21 March 2020, based on the date each death was registered rather than when it occurred. Excess deaths are presented by age, sex, Upper Tier Local Authority, ethnic group, level of deprivation, cause of death and place of death. Please note, some of the figures in this report have been rounded, though the differences displayed are based on unrounded data.

All Persons

Weekly excess deaths by date of registration, West Midlands.&lrm;

Figure 1: Weekly excess deaths by date of registration, West Midlands.‎

The trend in total excess deaths by week, in West Midlands, since week ending 27 March 2020 is shown in Figure 1. Numbers above each of the columns show the total number of excess deaths and how these compare with the expected number based on modelled estimates for 2015 to 2019. For example, in week ending 24 April 2020 there were 1,288 excess deaths and this was over two times (2.08 times higher) the expected number of deaths in this week. When fewer deaths than expected occur in a week, the column is coloured grey.

Excess deaths where COVID-19 was mentioned on the death certificate are shown in orange. If the number of deaths is not shown in the orange part of the column, that means the total excess was less than the number of deaths with a mention of COVID-19, indicating fewer deaths from other causes than expected in these weeks.

The number of excess deaths without COVID-19 mentioned on the certificate (shown in the white part of the column) may be due to an increase in deaths from other causes during the period of the pandemic but may also reflect under-reporting of deaths involving COVID-19.

Figure 2: Cumulative deaths since 21 March 2020, by date of registration, West Midlands.

The trend in the total cumulative number of excess deaths in West Midlands since 21 March 2020 is shown in Figure 2.

Age Group Males

Figure 3: Cumulative excess deaths (A) and the ratio of registered deaths to expected deaths (B) by age group, males, West Midlands.

Figure 3A for males can be used to compare the cumulative total of excess deaths since 21 March 2020 between age groups.

Figure 3B compares the cumulative total of excess deaths among males with the number which would have been expected based on the modelled estimates for earlier years. Where the ratio of observed to expected is negative, this is shown in grey. The proportion of the excess where COVID-19 was mentioned on the death certificate is shown in yellow.

Table 1 - Males

Age group (years)	Registered deaths	Expected deaths	Ratio registered / expected	Excess deaths	COVID-19 deaths	COVID-19 deaths as % excess
0-24	377	351	-^*	26	9	34.5%
25-49	1,583	1,264	1.25	319	229	71.8%
50-64	4,240	3,228	1.31	1,012	836	82.6%
65-74	6,412	5,034	1.27	1,378	1,494	>100%⁺
75-84	10,902	8,413	1.30	2,489	2,870	>100%⁺
85+	10,517	8,182	1.29	2,335	2,785	>100%⁺
^* registered deaths were not significantly different from expected deaths for the time period ⁺ the total excess was less than the number of deaths with a mention of COVID-19, indicating fewer deaths from other causes than expected

Why ratios are important

Ratios can be useful for comparing between groups when the expected number is very different between groups.

For example, if group A had 5 excess deaths and group B had 10, it could appear that the impact was twice as high in group B. However, if the expected number of deaths was 1 in group A and 5 in group B, and the registered numbers of deaths were 6 and 15 respectively, then the ratios would show that group A experienced 6 times the number of deaths compared to expected, while group B experienced 3 times the number expected. Therefore, the actual relative impact is higher in group A.

The ratios presented in this report are relative to historical trends within each group, and not in relation to another group. For example, in the ethnicity section the ratio for the Asian group is the ratio between deaths in this group registered in 2020 and the estimate of expected deaths in the Asian group based on the preceding 5 years. It is not the ratio between the Asian group and another ethnic group.

Age Group Females

Figure 4: Cumulative excess deaths (A) and the ratio of registered deaths to expected deaths (B) by age group, females, West Midlands.

Figure 4A for females can be used to compare the cumulative total of excess deaths since 21 March 2020 between age groups.

Figure 4B shows the ratio of the observed to the expected deaths by age group among females since 21 March 2020. This chart can be used to compare the relative excess mortality between age groups.

Table 2 - Females

Age group (years)	Registered deaths	Expected deaths	Ratio registered / expected	Excess deaths	COVID-19 deaths	COVID-19 deaths as % excess
0-24	226	223	-^*	3	4	>100%⁺
25-49	956	759	1.26	197	149	75.6%
50-64	2,686	2,181	1.23	505	511	>100%⁺
65-74	4,401	3,577	1.23	824	841	>100%⁺
75-84	8,866	7,243	1.22	1,623	2,027	>100%⁺
85+	14,923	12,280	1.22	2,643	3,225	>100%⁺
^* registered deaths were not significantly different from expected deaths for the time period ⁺ the total excess was less than the number of deaths with a mention of COVID-19, indicating fewer deaths from other causes than expected

Ethnic Group Males

Figure 5: Cumulative excess deaths (A) and the ratio of registered deaths to expected deaths (B) by ethnic group, males, West Midlands.

Figure 5A for males can be used to compare the cumulative total of excess deaths since 21 March 2020 between ethnic groups.

Figure 5B shows the ratio of the observed to the expected deaths by ethnic group among males since 21 March 2020. This chart can be used to compare relative excess mortality between ethnic groups.

Table 3 - Males

Ethnic group	Registered deaths	Expected deaths	Ratio registered / expected	Excess deaths	COVID-19 deaths	COVID-19 deaths as % excess
Asian	2,096	1,125	1.86	972	855	88.0%
Black	892	470	1.90	423	273	64.5%
Mixed	187	94	1.98	92	41	44.9%
Other	243	293	-^*	−49	67	-
White	29,944	23,883	1.25	6,062	6,844	>100%⁺
^* registered deaths were not significantly different from expected deaths for the time period ⁺ the total excess was less than the number of deaths with a mention of COVID-19, indicating fewer deaths from other causes than expected

Ethnic Group Females

Figure 6: Cumulative excess deaths (A) and the ratio of registered deaths to expected deaths (B) by ethnic group, females, West Midlands.

Figure 6A for females can be used to compare the cumulative total of excess deaths since 21 March 2020 between ethnic groups.

Figure 6B shows the ratio of the observed to the expected deaths by ethnic group among females since 21 March 2020. This chart can be used to compare relative excess mortality between ethnic groups.

Table 4 - Females

Ethnic group	Registered deaths	Expected deaths	Ratio registered / expected	Excess deaths	COVID-19 deaths	COVID-19 deaths as % excess
Asian	1,585	954	1.66	631	535	84.9%
Black	721	417	1.73	304	215	70.9%
Mixed	156	71	2.19	85	38	44.7%
Other	180	219	-^*	−39	40	-
White	28,835	23,996	1.20	4,840	5,827	>100%⁺
^* registered deaths were not significantly different from expected deaths for the time period ⁺ the total excess was less than the number of deaths with a mention of COVID-19, indicating fewer deaths from other causes than expected

Ethnicity coding

Ethnicity is not collected at death registration, so these estimates were made by linking death records to hospital records to find the ethnicity of the deceased. This approach has some limitations. Ethnicity is supposed to be self-reported by the patient in hospital records, but this may not always be the case. Patients may also report different ethnicities in different episodes of care. For this analysis the most recent reported ethnic group was used. Population estimates have been used to calculate mortality rates to estimate the expected numbers of deaths, and these were based on the 2011 Census. This may lead to a mismatch between ethnicity reported in hospital records and self-reported ethnicity in the census. It appears, for example, that more people are assigned to the ‘Other’ group in hospital records than in the 2011 Census.

Deprivation

Figure 7: Cumulative excess deaths (A) and the ratio of registered deaths to expected deaths (B) by deprivation quintile, West Midlands.

Figure 7A can be used to compare the cumulative total of excess deaths since 21 March 2020 between deprivation quintiles.

Figure 7B shows the ratio of the observed to the expected deaths by deprivation quintile since 21 March 2020. This chart can be used to compare relative excess mortality between deprivation quintiles.

Table 5

Deprivation quintile	Registered deaths	Expected deaths	Ratio registered / expected	Excess deaths	COVID-19 deaths	COVID-19 deaths as % excess
Quintile 1 - Most Deprived	19,117	14,476	1.32	4,641	4,961	>100%^*
Quintile 2	12,808	10,422	1.23	2,386	2,874	>100%^*
Quintile 3	13,273	10,869	1.22	2,404	2,802	>100%^*
Quintile 4	12,076	9,722	1.24	2,354	2,524	>100%^*
Quintile 5 - Least Deprived	8,815	7,246	1.22	1,569	1,819	>100%^*
^* the total excess was less than the number of deaths with a mention of COVID-19, indicating fewer deaths from other causes than expected

Upper Tier Local Authority

Figure 8: Cumulative excess deaths (A) and the ratio of registered deaths to expected deaths (B) by Upper Tier Local Authority, West Midlands.

Figure 8A can be used to compare the cumulative total of excess deaths since 21 March 2020 between Upper Tier Local Authorities.

Figure 8B shows the ratio of the observed to the expected deaths by Upper Tier Local Authority since 21 March 2020. This chart can be used to compare relative excess mortality between Upper Tier Local Authorities.

Table 6

Upper Tier Local Authority	Registered deaths	Expected deaths	Ratio registered / expected	Excess deaths	COVID-19 deaths	COVID-19 deaths as % excess
Birmingham	10,830	7,982	1.36	2,848	2,946	>100%^*
Coventry	3,232	2,655	1.22	577	629	>100%^*
Dudley	3,842	3,065	1.25	777	827	>100%^*
Herefordshire, County of	2,235	2,030	1.10	205	325	>100%^*
Sandwell	3,791	2,782	1.36	1,009	1,082	>100%^*
Shropshire	3,878	3,448	1.12	430	621	>100%^*
Solihull	2,542	1,954	1.30	588	625	>100%^*
Staffordshire	10,617	8,491	1.25	2,126	2,572	>100%^*
Stoke-on-Trent	3,154	2,429	1.30	725	770	>100%^*
Telford and Wrekin	1,729	1,497	1.16	232	267	>100%^*
Walsall	3,378	2,613	1.29	765	950	>100%^*
Warwickshire	6,517	5,362	1.22	1,155	1,226	>100%^*
Wolverhampton	3,284	2,484	1.32	800	820	>100%^*
Worcestershire	7,060	5,924	1.19	1,136	1,320	>100%^*
^* the total excess was less than the number of deaths with a mention of COVID-19, indicating fewer deaths from other causes than expected

Deaths by underlying cause

See ICD10 references for the details of the ICD10 codes for each cause in this section.

Figure 9: Cumulative excess deaths (A) and the ratio of registered deaths to expected deaths (B) by underlying cause of death, West Midlands.

Figure 9A shows the total cumulative excess deaths by UCOD since 21 March 2020. The chart can be used to compare the number of excess deaths for each UCOD.

This chart can be used to compare the cumulative total of excess deaths since 21 March 2020 between underlying causes.

Figure 9B shows the ratio of the observed to the expected deaths by UCOD since 21 March 2020. This chart can be used to compare relative excess mortality between underlying causes of death.

Table 7

Underlying cause of death	Registered deaths	Expected deaths	Ratio registered / expected	Excess deaths	COVID-19 deaths	COVID-19 deaths as % excess
Ischaemic Heart Diseases	5,893	5,344	1.10	549	179	32.6%
Cerebrovascular Diseases	2,946	2,655	1.11	291	117	40.2%
Other Circulatory Diseases	4,622	4,324	1.07	298	148	49.7%
Cancer	14,308	14,496	-^*	−188	414	-
Acute Respiratory Infections	1,962	2,660	0.74	−698	1	-
Chronic Lower Respiratory Diseases	2,559	3,145	0.81	−586	51	-
Other Respiratory Diseases	896	1,184	0.76	−288	16	-
Dementia and Alzheimer's	6,759	6,949	-^*	−190	291	-
Diseases of the Urinary System	854	778	-^*	76	62	81.9%
Cirrhosis and Other Liver Diseases	1,066	939	1.14	127	61	48.1%
Parkinson's Disease	757	831	-^*	−74	36	-
All Other Causes (Excl. COVID-19)	10,224	9,569	1.07	655	361	55.1%
^* registered deaths were not significantly different from expected deaths for the time period

Place of Death

Figure 10: Cumulative excess deaths (A) and the ratio of registered deaths to expected deaths (B), by place of death, West Midlands.

Figure 10A shows the total cumulative excess deaths in each place of death since 21 March 2020. The chart can be used to compare the numbers of excess deaths in each place of death. This chart can be used to compare the cumulative total of excess deaths since 21 March 2020 between places of death.

Figure 10B shows the ratio of the observed to the expected deaths in each place of death since 21 March 2020. This chart can be used to compare relative excess mortality between places of death.

Table 8

Place of death	Registered deaths	Expected deaths	Ratio registered / expected	Excess deaths	COVID-19 deaths	COVID-19 deaths as % excess
Care Home (Nursing or Residential)	13,952	10,783	1.29	3,169	2,953	93.2%
Home	17,845	12,617	1.41	5,228	867	16.6%
Hospice	2,764	3,341	0.83	−577	235	-
Hospital (Acute or Community, not Psychiatric)	30,045	24,748	1.21	5,297	10,792	>100%^*
Other Places	1,483	1,182	1.25	301	133	44.1%
^* the total excess was less than the number of deaths with a mention of COVID-19, indicating fewer deaths from other causes than expected

Comparisons to other measures of excess deaths in England

The Office for National Statistics also publishes a weekly report on excess deaths in England & Wales. The numbers reported by ONS are broadly in line with the overall excess death figures in this report but there are some differences as the ‘expected’ numbers in this report are not just the simple five-year average for 2015 to 2019, as used by ONS. As explained in the Methods, they are instead modelled estimates which adjust for factors such as the ageing of the population and the underlying trend in mortality rates from year to year.

PHE produces other estimates of excess mortality using the daily General Register Office model and the EuroMOMO model. These are reviewed in this blog.

Updates to Excess Mortality Methodology, December 2020

Several changes to the models were introduced in the regional report from January 2020:

Estimates are modelled on weekly periods, rather than modelled on daily periods and aggregated to weeks for publication
Weeks begin on Saturday and end on Friday, rather than Sunday to Saturday. This is consistent with ONS reporting weeks
The ONS Annual Death Extract is used as the source for 2019 deaths, instead of the previous (provisional) weekly data from the Mortality & Births Information System (MBIS)
2019 mid-year population estimates are now used instead of 2019 population projections
The model now includes additional interaction terms for age and time of year (seasonality), age and deprivation, and age and ethnic group

The methodology document has been updated to reflect these changes.

Links to historic reports

ICD10 references

Cause description	ICD10 reference
Ischaemic heart diseases	Underlying cause of death is between I20-I25
Cerebrovascular diseases	Underlying cause of death is between I60-I69
Other circulatory diseases	Underlying cause of death begins with I (excluding I20-I25 and I60-I69)
Cancer	Underlying cause of death is between C00-C97
Acute respiratory infections	Underlying cause of death is between J00-J22
Chronic lower respiratory diseases	Underlying cause of death is between J40-J47
Other respiratory diseases	Underlying cause of death begins with J (excluding J00-J22 and J40-J47)
Dementia and Alzheimer’s	Underlying cause of death is one of F01, F03, or G30
Diseases of the urinary system	Underlying cause of death is between N00-N39
Cirrhosis and other liver diseases	Underlying cause of death is between K70-K76
Parkinson’s disease	Underlying cause of death is G20
All other causes (excl. COVID-19)	All other underlying causes of death (excluding COVID-19)